Year of Publication | 2015 | Division | Applied Meteorology Research Division |
---|---|---|---|
Title | the application of the european heat wave of 2003 to korean cities to analyze impacts on heat-related mortality | ||
Author | J.Scott greene | ||
Coauthor | Kyu Rang Kim, Young-Jean Choi, Dae-Geun Lee | ||
ISBN(ISSN) | Name of Journal | international journal of biometeorology | |
Category (International/Domestic) | SCI | Vol. No. | |
Research Project Title | 차세대 도시농림융합스마트기상서비스개발 (2015년) | Publication Date | 2015-07-01 |
Keywords | Extreme heat events , Heat-related mortality, Korea,Synoptic climatology |
The goal of this research is to transpose the unprecedented 2003 European excessive heat event to
six Korean cities and to develop meteorological analogs for each. Since this heat episode is not a
model but an actual event, we can use a plausible analog to assess the risk of increasing heat on t
hese cities instead of an analog that is dependent on general circulation (GCM)
modeling or the development of arbitrary scenarios. Initially, the 2003 summer meteorological conditions from Paris are characterized statistically
and these characteristics are transferred to the Korean cites. Next, the new meteorological
dataset for each Korean city is converted into a daily air mass calendar. We can then
determine the frequency and character of “offensive” air masses in the Korean cities
that are historically associated with elevated heat-related mortality. One unexpected
result is the comparative severity of the very hot summer of 1994 in Korea, which actually
eclipsed the 2003 analog. The persistence of the offensive air masses is considerably
greater for the summer of 1994, as were dew point temperatures for a majority of the
Korean cities. For all the Korean cities but one, the summer of 1994 is associated with
more heat-related deaths than the analog summer, in some cases yielding a sixfold increase
over deaths in an average summer. The Korean cities appear less sensitive to heat-related
mortality problems during very hot summers than do large eastern and Midwestern US cities,
possibly due to a lesser summer climate variation and efficient social services available during extreme heat episodes
six Korean cities and to develop meteorological analogs for each. Since this heat episode is not a
model but an actual event, we can use a plausible analog to assess the risk of increasing heat on t
hese cities instead of an analog that is dependent on general circulation (GCM)
modeling or the development of arbitrary scenarios. Initially, the 2003 summer meteorological conditions from Paris are characterized statistically
and these characteristics are transferred to the Korean cites. Next, the new meteorological
dataset for each Korean city is converted into a daily air mass calendar. We can then
determine the frequency and character of “offensive” air masses in the Korean cities
that are historically associated with elevated heat-related mortality. One unexpected
result is the comparative severity of the very hot summer of 1994 in Korea, which actually
eclipsed the 2003 analog. The persistence of the offensive air masses is considerably
greater for the summer of 1994, as were dew point temperatures for a majority of the
Korean cities. For all the Korean cities but one, the summer of 1994 is associated with
more heat-related deaths than the analog summer, in some cases yielding a sixfold increase
over deaths in an average summer. The Korean cities appear less sensitive to heat-related
mortality problems during very hot summers than do large eastern and Midwestern US cities,
possibly due to a lesser summer climate variation and efficient social services available during extreme heat episodes